Dealing with loss
Defining our risk in life is not easy. Many variables come into play, including lady luck.
Mechanical in nature, the market seems to be going through some highly obvious rhythms, and has been assisted by finding some common indicators like today’s 39.25 pivot point.
We need to be aware of getting too complacent, but trades either work or they don’t.
The 48 high magnet sure felt like it wanted to stomp the shorts and aim for bumping a few stops, but long side risk was no edge at the 47 – 48 area today.
Several times some over-anxious shorts likely got their ears boxed if they didn’t perceive the 39.25 pivot and then the 41.5 Angel late afternoon in yet again another higher low. The 47 Demon was picture perfect in the range trade.
We had 37 as likely support, and 43 as key resistance the first hour. When it broke, any high was triggered. The 60 chart was in play we felt in being stretched, and in need of at least a reasonable 456 pullback, which set the odds in favor of the lunch trade.
The best joke I heard today: vodka and tums trade at the top. I passed on the tums and asked for a shot of vodka.
I once studied with Larry Williams chat service years ago. We had to call in on the telephone to retrieve the message. I remember him saying “How do we know which one of these double tops will hold? We don’t. The solution is to take them all and let them sort themselves out. That’s the edge.”
Still doesn’t make it any easier, but that’s the defined risk, 1 point or so for the best odds trade in the books.
It is important to see what happens overnight. Carl F again had the range substantially correct.
He sees a 56 target possible, but I prefer the smaller zone first. The 43.75 magnet will give us clues.
Step by step, trade by trade.
With a rollover tomorrow, anything is possible, and it usually takes several passes for the market to switch gears. The 5 point spread allows for the June contract (M) to hit the 48 area.
No predictions, just thinking out loud.
Just make the play and stay humble. Thanks Dad.