This is a difficult business, and don’t let anyone tell you otherwise.
At least for me it is.
I would guess most businesses are that way to one degree or another.
Business cycles, changes in laws, changes in consumer sentiment, variables like the valuation of the Dollar…
The list goes on and on… Meddling by the PPT, news reports, and outright lies and manipulation…
“It just comes with the territory” if you are going to play this game.
A few things have found to be helpful
- Don’t over leverage any one trade idea
- Be conservative
- Find the Chart in Play
- Accept stop losses as the price needed to play this game
- Play the Trend if there is one
- Use timing ideas to play contras
- Don’t play if there is no edge
- Accept that we will be wrong…and often
- Find objective criteria to evaluate the market
- Determine what style of play fits my temperament, account, and skills
- Use intuition, but consider all of the above ideas as equally important
On the one hand…
On the other…
Weigh evidence, consider alternatives, Act, React.
Observe, Orient, Decide, Act.
One of the problems and challenges accepting “calls” from the pick and shovel crowd (me included), is that your personality, account, skills, etc may be completely different from mine.
With that being said… if you are new at this game, you need to pay your dues by learning from someone who has been around the block.
There are many who charge a reasonable tuition; certainly someone under a hundred bucks a month is a steal, especially if they are good and match your style.
I say that because I want new followers to realize this is a difficult business, and no two traders are alike.
What if a trader was up during the night and made some profits, then was able to see the turning point for the morning’s support bounce?
Would he or she have an edge over you?
Either you are in the trade or you are not.
The trick is to be close enough to make a profitable trade, but not so close that we get stopped out before we can do so.
That means agreeing to taking an acceptable risk.
Today’s Rabid Dog Day trade is as tough as they come in my opinion.
Why? If we take a reasonable profit… then we need to decide if we are going to reverse, re enter, or do nothing.
Best thought of the day: “You cannot just short”…26 support until broken”.
It is a dangerous pivot. The trade develops and it becomes obvious today is a one-way up elevator day, a mirror day. “Shorts nightmare day”.
Worst thought of the day: There should be a contra this afternoon, there usually is. Fast chart is too fast and needs to regress some.
Wrong. Minimal regression.. After hours it should do that… 48 resistance EOD.
Missed trades are better than lost money, yes.
Doing nothing is one approach.
Finding the right trade and taking it is better in my opinion.
Once out with profits… then you are out of the flow… and that is where today’s action got tricky.
Trend day yes; normally a contra will relieve the buying pressure as profits are captured.
The challenge was market structure at the high; but the underlying theme, the most important idea I could come up with was “trapped shorts”.
That was why I said any day high possible.
The odds change as we got to the gap fill and the 48 high.
Doing nothing was an acceptable plan late day, especially if we had no profits.
Thank you to a nice trader who said I was “seasoned”.
I accept that as meaning old, battle scarred, conservative… and still a student of the market.
We will miss trades, take ones that we shouldn’t, do dumb things just like everyone else.
What we won’t do is continue to be wrong and stubborn.
Been there, done that.
Either the trade is working and we are in, or it’s not and we donate to the Boyz retirement fund.
No sense in funding their Country Club membership too.