Trading what we SEE
Step by step, one day at a time.
Analyzing market flow is a difficult task, and it takes years of study to get the feel of sequence trading.
Bringing our bias to the table makes it even harder.
One of our stronger team members proposed an idea this morning: momentum pinball.
Was it possible? Of course. Should it be considered, absolutely.
Should we continue to assume that it is truth, while the market is telling us otherwise?
I think not.
The cold hard facts during the first hour:
- The gap was not filled
- Half gap was not filled
- We were testing 82 to 85 support
- Daily support was assumed to be 66.75, so we still had a huge air pocket available
- We broke yesterday’s low
- We broke the prior week’s support overnight
- Moving average support had been lost on the daily, still extended on the weekly basis.
- Significant Fibonacci levels were still another 10 points lower.
- Proprietary calculations suggested 77.25 target available, then 74.25, then 72 as possible.
When the IB low breaks, it is another sign of market weakness. Maturity in a trader is when we can make unbiased decisions and act on them accordingly.
Identifying today as a trend day, with the Dow and Comp in synch, kept us advising traders not to guess against the flow. We were very concerned about not over staying the short near 72; that doesn’t necessarily translate into strong bounce. Range is the possibility to allow for several attempts to break the low.
After 2:30 odds change significantly. After 3:30 I would guess they change again, as day traders want to protect profits.
Our call was to be flat and not assume breakdown. The 71 was a head fake that caught a few turtles with their necks stuck out. Capitulation volume was missing, but the timing was right for eod profit taking.
RT @TraderSmarts: @eminiwizard Awesome E. Congrats! / thanks T that’s what its all about
market still searching for support.. retesting lwl http://bit.ly/cHAzXE
RT @skputts: what mas or xmas do you use, may I ask?/ after a mere 18 years of study, i use ideas from velez, haggerty, and stan moore
kudos @carlfutia called for this retracement move and he has been right on
777 : @eminiwizard t2 77.75 target achieved 93 stop on twitter
777 : @Eminiwizard Posted 72 B$ lunch all oput by then, trailer is all… $ES_F
@Nirav777 thanks 7 for posting ; computer probs with twitter
72 is a major pivot for us and once ib low broke targets became 77.75, 74.25, and possible 72 test … we liked 93 stop for shorts
@zlmtb thank u 74.5 is current angel attempt … on trend day usually no rush to buy … takes time to stabilize
@AbsolutionCL thanks Jeremy
daily chart was a lot of air so potential for big down day existed today 79 key resistance still
lunch bounce needs to take that 79 out to get some shorts covering … or else more chop
RT @TraderSmarts: We are sitting at + 161 ticks from entry on 6E short so just make sure you book some near target hit. / awesome trade
any short trades taken this afternoon are assumed scalp only test the 75 to 74.5 still possible in the 79 short
low volume participation now …
@p357 thank you !
the pro bounce is the 72 lunch trade… and trend day my assumption is they would not over stay but capture in the 78 to 79 area first
@p357 and this tests the angel and now the game is on … ope ex week so hit and run now if playing
RT @misstrademember: Stops to 75 now locks in 4 here @ 73 timber / lol nice trend trade
RT @AdamPettitt: @eminiwizard Are you a member at emisstrades and if so do you recommend it? / not a member… but recommend it highly
@midget_666 agree… but 72 first then that 68 area
vix is rocking and rolling just missed closing 23+ gap
crazy ticks too -1200 +
RT @weewuu: @eminiwizard I am, have been for months. very profitable for the price… / and Matt is top notch character
@AdamPettitt ask him for visit to his room see if compatible
have not seen capitulation volume yet
getting late … conservative leave the party by 3:30
@DiogoMattoso never too late DM ty very much
@50Pips thanks 50 for rt
we havent had trend day short in a loooooong time… traders forgot they can happen
@ZenIg I thought close maybe the 74.75
@ZenIg and key now still 78 to 82 area defense and 68 72 other side
RT @50Pips: @eminiwizard very wise words 😉 / as u know those words came at a price over the years to learn them ty
@ZenIg option exp week is part of the problem 71 is a 61% ext from last week so had to be careful of fib guys late
RT @ZenIg: @eminiwizard tks, most appreciated that info / u welcome
@50Pips 50 always a pleasure
RT @nikkyd: @eminiwizard Island reversal in SPY (60 min chart) ty be well
@JT707 ty for rt