Deja Vu Two
I know I sound like a broken record, but “it’s raining, there’s the umbrella trade developing.”
Kaiser Soze all over again.
There are many times we analyze correctly, but for whatever reason, miss parts or all of a trade. Other times we guess incorrectly, and are there and catch all of them (lol).
A mix of these ideas is usually more normal.
Pre market analysis, and we were all over the idea of trouble for shorts day.
The right trade is test for the half gap at 13.5. We thought reversing there was a good idea, but don’t forget Ben yada yada yada makes it difficult for conservative traders.
Half gap support, use 12.5 stop… 27 needs testing. Some wanted in the 30’s.
My opinion? I think 27 is enough, perhaps 28/29 as a head fake.
28.25 was decided as good resistance for the morning push.
Here is what I thought was a reasonable idea at the highs:
“We can chop, go higher, or pull back.” Lunch is approaching, look for a marginal high…above 27…conservative wait for 28 + area, especially if you have no profits.
Risk reward says to me “enough”, then we need to test the 24 if lucky. If this is rabid dog day, then 22 is key support. If it breaks, believe it or not, we can go to any day low.
“I do NOT think that will happen; it did that yesterday, and I doubt it will today.” It may head fake and test 19, if that holds, then we can still close above 22.
[13:01] E: we wont do same thing as yesterday[13:01] E: pb huge[13:02] E: if we did, i would be flabbergasted
@chewtonic @FlowTraderES 12:07] E: if 22 gets broken[12:08] E: we can test any low [15:10] E: umbrella #EMWS nice call u guys
RT @FlowTraderES: RT @chewtonic: Apologies Out of office 130 /230 Got back, said : 14:50 E: so 22 gets beat opens door to “any low” #EMWS
omnovia chat room giving us problems. didnt even turn twitter on this afternoon. anyone use cisco/webex? http://bit.ly/tn9z3 #EMWS
and chart with EOD thought http://bit.ly/mUwDmt [13:01] E: the key to the afternoon is the 22 gateway #EMWS blog post later
The system was intact when I returned. Zeek had already made the necessary adjustments, seen the reversal take root, and become increasingly clear as profits from the long side scammers were being erased.
“If we are wrong, cease to be wrong and join the winning team” is always a worthwhile idea.
A reminder as stated above: just because we “read” a move correctly, doesn’t mean we can participate in it.
After hours, I am taking a walk, multi-tasking with a few phone calls. I put out the trash for collection.
I cool off, sit at my desk, go to make copies of a few charts… and 1302 is staring me in the face.
So what; it reinforces my belief in my system, and allows me to play a bounce for part of the move if I choose.
That’s the point of understanding likely profit taking locations; they are high odds reversal areas.
We are not robots, we are traders, winning some, losing some, and masters of our own destiny.
I ran a webinar late this afternoon, in response to the question: “How do you prepare for the next day?”
Simpler than you imagine.
I review the spreadsheets, and update them. I talk to myself, just what you are hearing. You are the beneficiary of my thinking; whether right or wrong. I look at all this data and that process plants the seeds in my head for possible trade ideas.
All we can know are possibilities and probabilities until hindsight. I review charts; the market felt like it was standing on tip-toes in this chart… It could go higher, but odds said not much. So risk reward; risk two points for 1 or two? or for five or seven or more?
Then I do it again in the morning when I wake up; last night actually at 5:30 a.m when I came out to peek at the market.
Then I talk and review with members… and all this constant thinking and talking and observing plants the important seeds in my head… so that I am more likely to remember the key markers and market structure as it unfolds.
Derek Jeter doesn’t say move my left foot shuffle my right, center my body on the ball, rotate and pivot, snap the throw and follow through. He just”does it”.
It has taken me 18 to 20 years to learn this. Why do you expect to learn it in two weeks?
I can give you the shortcuts, but it will take time to absorb the ideas, and more time to “execute” the trades. They are not one and the same, as all of us know if we have traded for any length of time.
Our members are appreciative, and our support of each other is solid.
If Billy C, a former prez can say “depends on what the definition of “is” is, and get away with it, then I shall ask for similar permission.
I don’t know “IF” 22 breaks until hindsight, only that it is a key in my mind, as explained in our room. Depending on fills, execution, etc.. we all react as best we can once into a trade, and then manage accordingly.
If, however, we can’t see it in hindsight, we will never see it and feel it in real time.
The wind started howling just before dinner, the sky grew black, and we had torrential rain for half an hour. The humidity has passed, the sky is still black now, but the moon is shining brightly. The temperature has broken at least by twenty degrees, and the air conditioning was turned off hours ago.
I just closed the window near me.. too cold.
Markets can turn on a dime; we all know in New England the weather can do the same…