Summer Shake and Bake
The trap door opened, hanging the early longs out to dry.
It was the perfect teaser setup for the shorts.
Go without them, then give it to them when they want it.
Interestingly, we thought correctly that the Boyz would try to reverse the slide, and the minimal breakdown target was 1326.5.
Call me naive, but a tad further would have been more reasonable.
Timing trade said better take profits, and see what happens. Trapped shorts helped push the IB high traders back on their heels.
The mechanics of the breakout suggested that a megaphone pattern was in play, and the 37 to 38.5 target was available.
We liked a profit taking sequence trade for the lunch push, retesting the breakout and completing the ORG trade.
The longs and short sides both had reasonable days, but no doubt the kaiser soze trade long was the primary trade during RTH.
Partial targets and hit and run trading allows for accumulation of capital if the main premise is correct.
The “why didn’t you hold for the last tic crowd” always assumes hindsight is available prior to the prints.
My assumption is be conservative…on exits and entry.
“Catch a piece of the move.”
The interns are relatively adept at maintaining momo.
Gap and trap is nothing new of course, but it is wearisome lately to be left with the feeling we are pushing a beach ball under water. Admittedly, thin markets give the longs an edge, as does the first of the month bias.
We tried a few charts with no moving averages to work the math profile.
Feeling the ebb and flow, the pulse of the market; is as important as the dynamics of the plan.
Good traders sense the subtle shifts and can adjust accordingly, provided we are honest with ourselves about what we are seeing.
“Believe nothing of what we hear and only half of what we see.”
But at night it’s a different world…
Boyz have their dancin’ shoes on again.