Trading to win using the Secret Code of the Illuminati

A Little Bit

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Timing

Think dangerously.

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If ever there was a time to lay on a holdover, it was EOD yesterday after that nonsensical late day stop run into major resistance.

Waking up with a grin bigger than Smilin’ Joe is a great way to start the day.

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The market fell like a house of cards. Kudos to the Giants; they outplayed St Louie every which way and earned the bragging rights.

They had momo going and were simply hungrier.

After the second inning, I said to my wife it was destined.

Like the 1406/7 test today.

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Positive Expectancy is necessary to do anything well, including trading.

A high risk, “perceived” low reward idea like fading an established trend can have a negative expectancy, but still result in a winning trade.

Long term, that may ultimately be a losing strategy. We win by losing. Small.

It is simply the cost of doing business.

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When we are always fading the odds, we lose the edge.

Four and one-half percent. That’s a tiny edge that produces huge results.

Think of all those casinos and the wealth that is created for it’s owners through a little bit of an edge.

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Chase trades are fine, as long as stops are adhered to. In a Rabid Dog Day, the risk is initially taken by aggressive traders; if the trade results in a winner, it is quite possible that there is now more risk in the immediate future by fading the short term push.

A little bit of information is dangerous.

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A little bit of soap…

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Halloween comes early, … love the bull avatars

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Today’s Trend day down gave us multiple breakout targets, with any day low available.

We thought aggressively short out of the gate, like Friday, because the Picture of Power said so.

I love it when a plan comes together.

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Last night’s stumble after the late day sweeper suggested that the longs were being foolish buying too early.

Common sense said shorts looking for too much short side were equally at risk.

Late shorts and early longs got hurt today.

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We reviewed Friday’s chart, took out our playbook again for the measured targets.

6.25, and 99 were major targets, and not expected to break 1400 today. Luck played a part in the trades, but jump into the waterfall early and then enjoy the ride.

Calls in the first 15 minutes IB for the 15.5 test by traders?

Right idea, bad timing.

Sigh.

It’s your money.

Sitting poolside in July is a lot of fun; maybe not so much in the middle of January.

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NQ still worth watching.

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Posts

One

Two

Three

Four

Five

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Build your own system, get confidence in it.

Share it with a few others who want to learn.

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Make a little profit every day, improve a little bit every day.

Some days those little bits multiply faster than you think they will.

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Guess right and fade trends at the right time, awesome.

I usually won’t unless it is a timing trade, or news, or I have profits from the strong side to risk.

When risk /reward changes dramatically, I don’t forget my targets, but I do want to be reasonable and look for the contra to fail at logical times and prices.

Team E, well done.

Reminder about little bits… it’s quality that counts, not quantity.

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[12:04] Mike _ : you’re a great teacher E
[12:05] Mike _ : yeah that XXX is a great concept i need to better get my head around
[12:05] Dean Pek: the best, incredible calls in the room this week. spot on
[12:05] Mike _ : thought the cards were golden
[12:08] xxx : tough to see a squeeze today but wouldn’t put it past them
[12:19] E: [12:08]xxx : tough to see a squeeze today but wouldn’t put it past them
[12:19] E: never doubt it
[12:19] E: thats how these markets work
[12:19] E: when and where is question
[12:20] E: [11:49] E: if u have profits and want to risk for lunch contra
[12:20] XXX : any excuse to squeeze em i guess
[12:20] E: [11:49] E: using 98 support
[12:20] Mike _ : even an ipad mini haha
[12:20] E: [11:49] E: market will try to bounce and run stops

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will never wash away my tears…


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