Till rivers flow upstream…
Market price is the final determiner of value.
We needed a pullback and we got a beautiful shakeout move into lunch.
Whenever we get a rip-roaring flush, shake hands with the Devil, but Sir or Madam, don’t turn you back on him.
The gentle pullback had us favoring a test of the 1401 to 1403, which we assumed was on a lot of trader’s radar screens. The IB low break at 4.25 triggered the “any day low” test rule. The good old fashioned flush came up aces right into the noon hour with stopping volume. We felt better odds not getting sliced and diced at lunch, and then look for a test of the 92 one more time, with 91 as support for a marginal tease and then bounce.
We cautioned late shorts to be careful, as “Late Louie Loses”.The subsequent two tic low was the trap for the turtles who didn’t have their head examined.
The real prize today was made in the primary trade fading the 1409 for the 1400 test, with the surprise being the gift to the gap fill at 94.25.
I want moves like that flush to stabilize in time and price, and expect that first contra to be minimal, and the sign of strength being the higher high in the late day rotation for the dump run move. The Angel was set at 93.25, and the weekly round-tripper that began yesterday was mission accomplished.
We liked the 480 chart as timing support.
We didn’t expect this big plunge, but the bear does jump, so we were reading the pattern right.
[08:49] E: all i can say is the 5 rth tells me 11 as resist and gap 06 to the rain is in play
Sometimes the important part is in the beginning steps that lead to bigger ones.
[11:43] E: i think today is screw longs til later
[11:43] bob a: question is how much later
[11:43] E: need knife to stop falling
[11:48] E: this is flush
[11:56] E: and likely small range
[11:56] E: today was worry about getting trapped
[11:56] E: and turned out the longs were the ones
[11:56] bob a: good calls e
[12:06] E: if u are buying the 92 low it is for bounce only
[12:06] E: and marginal x point type first
[12:06] E: xxxxx
[12:07] E: shorts any more today and u need head examined
[12:07] E: can go to any low day
[12:08] E: but this is round trip and the 94 is xxx area
@twitJRA @vkligys @spz_trader thanks all for posts on #EMWS today. Apologies to anyone that tweetdeck doesn’t pass along to me.
Risk reward considerations make it necessary to view trading as an experience of constant self-discovery. Accepting the gifts that are given to us, as well as what is “stolen”, is part of this business. Trying to squeeze every last ounce out of a trade usually costs us dearly.
Mini umbrella was a solid trade, no more, no less.